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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Heart failure &#40;HF&#41; was identified as an emerging epidemic more than two decades ago&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> and is currently estimated to affect at least 26 million people worldwide&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span></a> HF is a complex syndrome that is difficult to define&#44; characterized by the heart&#39;s inability to meet the body&#39;s metabolic demands resulting from structural and&#47;or functional impairment of ventricular filling or ejection&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0140"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3&#44;4</span></a> Diagnosis is largely clinical&#44; based on symptoms and signs&#44; for which imaging techniques &#40;particularly echocardiography&#41; and measurement of neurohormonal peptides are crucial&#46; Although in most cases the focus is on symptomatic HF&#44; a proportion of high-risk patients may have no symptoms despite reduced left ventricular ejection fraction&#44; and they may also benefit from medical therapies that favorably impact prognosis&#46;</p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Worldwide&#44; the overall prevalence of HF is about 1-2&#37;&#44; but this figure increases considerably with advancing age&#46; Progress in primary prevention and improvements in medical care have resulted in improved survival&#44; which in turn is expected to lead to a steady rise in the prevalence of HF&#46; In the US&#44; an estimated 6&#46;2 million individuals aged &#8805;20 years have HF &#40;data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey&#44; 2013 to 2016&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> which represents an increase of 8&#46;77&#37; in comparison to the previous four years&#44; and projections show that the prevalence of HF will increase by 46&#37; from 2012 to 2030&#44; resulting in &#62;8 million people aged &#8805;18 years with the condition&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In a recent paper&#44; Conrad et al&#46; provided contemporary insight into the magnitude of the HF burden in a representative sample &#40;four million individuals&#41; of the general population of the UK&#44; between 2002 and 2014&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a> They showed that incidence &#40;standardized by age and gender&#41; decreased by 7&#37; over this period&#44; which appeared to be mainly driven by a lower incidence of HF in people between 60 and 84 years of age&#46; However&#44; the incidence in people aged 85 and older increased substantially over the observation period&#46; Moreover&#44; the authors found that the absolute prevalence had increased by 23&#37;&#44; and attributed this increase to population growth and aging&#44; in addition to more people surviving a myocardial infarction&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a></p><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Temporal trends in incidence are variable across studies and difficult to rely on due to methodological differences regarding populations&#44; settings&#44; and ascertainment and adjustment approaches&#44; but overall indicate that the incidence of HF is stable or even decreasing over time&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a> However&#44; the lifetime risk for HF in the community is very high &#40;ranging from 30&#37; to 40&#37;&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0165"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">8&#8211;10</span></a> with traditional factors accounting for a considerable proportion of HF risk and contributing to the rise in HF prevalence&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> Despite the progress in therapies &#40;drugs and devices&#41; observed during recent decades&#44; HF remains a morbid&#44; fatal and costly condition&#44; with a global burden that will increase dramatically with an aging population&#46; In fact HF is the single leading cause of hospitalization in persons aged 65 years and above&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a> Rates of hospitalizations for HF are increasing over time&#44; apparently driven by rises in HF with preserved ejection fraction &#40;HFpEF&#41;&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> Diastolic dysfunction is a common condition&#44; especially in the elderly&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;11</span></a> and HFpEF may soon be dominant&#44; if it is not already&#44; in driving overall HF prevalence&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a></p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">HF constitutes an enormous economic burden for health care systems in industrialized countries&#46; Europe and the US spend 1-2&#37; of their annual health care budget on HF&#46; Cook et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> estimated the overall cost of heart failure in 2012&#44; in both direct and indirect terms&#44; across the globe&#46; They included 197 countries in the analysis&#44; covering 98&#46;7&#37; of the world&#39;s population&#46; The overall economic cost of HF in 2012 was estimated at &#36;108 billion per annum&#46; Direct costs accounted for &#8764;60&#37; &#40;&#36;65 billion&#41; and indirect costs accounted for &#8764;40&#37; &#40;&#36;43 billion&#41; of the overall spend&#46; The US is the biggest contributor to global HF costs&#44; accounting for 28&#46;4&#37; of the total &#40;&#36;30&#46;7 billion&#41;&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;12</span></a> Europe accounts for 6&#46;83&#37; of total global HF costs&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> High-income countries spend a greater proportion on direct costs&#44; while in middle- and low-income countries a higher proportion is spent on indirect costs&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> US projections suggest that by 2030&#44; the total cost of HF will increase by 127&#37;&#44; to &#36;69&#46;8 billion&#44; amounting to &#8776;&#36;244 for every American adult&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a></p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this issue of the <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Journal</span>&#44; Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> present a cost-of-illness &#40;COI&#41; study on HF in mainland Portugal&#44; following a prevalence-based approach and the societal perspective to estimate direct and indirect costs related to HF&#46;</p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">On the basis of the estimated prevalence and costs for 2014 &#40;the index year&#41;&#44; the authors estimated changes for the following two decades &#40;up to 2036&#41;&#44; considering only the predicted aging of the population&#46; Only the resident population &#8805;25 years of age with symptomatic HF &#40;New York Heart Association &#91;NYHA&#93; functional class II-IV&#41; was included&#46; The prevalence of HF in 2014 was estimated on the basis of the EPICA study &#40;1998-2000&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> adjusted for the expected changes in demographics since that study&#46;</p><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The different settings experienced by HF patients were analyzed&#46; Direct costs included hospitalizations&#44; hospital outpatient services&#44; emergency department &#40;ED&#41; visits &#40;with and without hospitalization&#41;&#44; day hospital care&#44; medications&#44; transportation&#44; and use of the national network of long-term care &#40;nursing home hospitalization or equivalent&#41;&#46; Data from 2014 on hospitalizations and hospital outpatient services were estimated based mostly on data from the national Diagnostic-Related Group database and identified according to the International Classification of Diseases&#44; Ninth Revision&#44; Clinical Modification &#40;ICD-9&#41;&#46; For the purposes of the study&#44; hospitalization was attributed to HF when this was listed as a primary diagnosis&#44; when it was coded as secondary to a primary diagnosis of circulatory system disease&#44; or when there were invasive cardiac procedures &#40;surgery or device implantation&#41; irrespective of other associated diagnoses&#46; All procedures and interventions related to HF were included in the costs of HF during the hospitalization episode&#46; Estimates of other relevant costs regarding hospital outpatient services were also derived from diverse sources of information&#44; including the opinion of a panel of HF experts representing various different geographical areas&#46; Estimation of costs related to primary care use was preceded by a cross-sectional study analyzing data from the information system of the Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Health Administration&#46; From a population of 1&#46;8 million&#44; 25&#160;316 individuals were identified aged &#8805;25 years&#44; with at least one medical visit during the index year &#40;2014&#41;&#44; and a code of HF &#40;K7 in the International Classification of Primary Care&#44; second edition&#41;&#46; Costs &#40;including those related to medical therapy&#41; were obtained from the Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Health Administration database&#46;</p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The indirect costs that were considered corresponded to lost productivity due to lower employment rates or absenteeism&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> The authors assumed that only patients under 65 years generate indirect costs&#44; and that patients in NYHA functional class II generate only indirect costs for absenteeism&#46;</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">For the estimation of future costs&#44; the authors considered that all variables and parameters that generate costs would remain constant&#44; except for the demographic composition of the population&#44; i&#46;e&#46; they considered that the mean cost per patient and the prevalence rates of HF by gender and age would not vary over the period considered&#46;</p><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The estimated overall prevalence of HF for 2014 was 5&#46;2&#37; &#40;mainland Portugal&#44; population aged 25 years of age or over&#41;&#46; The prevalence of HF generating costs &#40;NYHA functional classes II-IV&#41; was 3&#46;4&#37;&#46; The overall economic cost of HF in 2014 was estimated at &#8364;405 million&#44; representing around 0&#46;2&#37; of gross domestic product and 2&#46;6&#37; of total public health expenditure&#46; Direct costs accounted for 74&#37; &#40;&#8364;299 million&#41;&#44; of which 39&#37; was attributed to hospitalizations&#44; 24&#37; to medications&#44; 17&#37; to exams and tests and 16&#37; to consultations&#46; Indirect costs accounted for 26&#37; &#40;&#8364;106 million&#41; of the overall spend&#44; 84&#37; of which was for reduced employment and 16&#37; for absenteeism&#46;</p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">According to the authors&#8217; estimated projections for 2036 in mainland Portugal&#44; the number of patients with HF &#40;NYHA functional class II-IV&#41; will increase by 27&#37; relative to 2014&#44; corresponding to an overall cost of &#8364;503 million in 2036 &#40;an increase of 24&#37;&#41;&#46; The increase in the number of older people with HF&#44; along with a constant rise in direct costs&#44; explains the increase in total cost&#59; a decrease in indirect costs is expected and attributed to demographic changes&#44; as there will be fewer people younger than 65 years of age &#40;lower prevalence of HF and decreased indirect costs&#41;&#46; The decrease in indirect costs also explains the discrepancy between the rate of increase in total costs &#40;27&#37;&#41; and the rate of increase in the number of patients with HF &#40;24&#37;&#41;&#46; The annual cost per patient with HF &#40;NYHA class II-IV&#41; is predicted decrease from &#8764;&#8364;1623 in 2014 to &#8764;&#8364;1582 in 2036&#44; but the cost per head of population will increase by &#8764;34&#37; between 2014 and 2036&#44; amounting to &#8776;&#8364;55 for every adult&#46;</p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The overall picture in mainland Portugal is in line with the international literature on this subject&#46; In a recent systematic review &#40;2004-2016&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> of 16 published COI studies dealing with the cost impact of HF&#44; considerable variation was observed in cost components and estimates&#44; as the methodologies used varied widely and health care systems are very different across countries&#46; Only three studies estimated indirect costs&#44; and four European studies published between 2013 and 2017<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16&#8211;19</span></a> focused mainly on costs related to HF hospitalizations&#44; while none estimated costs for lost productivity&#46; However&#44; most of the 16 included studies<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> showed that hospitalizations are the most expensive element&#46;</p><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Also&#44; according to Gouveia et al&#46;&#8217;s estimates&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> hospitalizations accounted for 39&#37; of direct costs while only 16&#37; were attributed to consultations&#44; a situation that urgently needs to be changed&#46; Medications accounted for 24&#37; of direct costs&#44; which is to be expected considering the heavy pharmacological burden of HF patients&#46; The benefit provided by prognosis-modifying therapies may outweigh the economic burden of hospitalizations&#44; although given the greater longevity achieved along with the corresponding increase in HF prevalence&#44; it is difficult to expect a reduction in the total cost of the illness&#46;</p><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The work by Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> has several merits besides being the first study to shed light on the costs of HF in Portugal and the corresponding estimated projection for the next two decades&#46; First&#44; the study covers the population with HF in the different possible contexts of management&#58; the hospital setting &#40;hospitalization&#44; consultations&#44; day hospital care&#44; emergency department visits without hospitalization&#41;&#59; the community &#40;outpatient setting&#41;&#44; i&#46;e&#46; management in primary health care&#59; and care at home &#40;or in an institution&#41; integrated in the National Network of Long-Term Care&#46; Second&#44; the work reflects the situation in Portugal using a methodology that appears flawless&#44; erring only on the side of underestimation&#46; In other words&#44; the cost estimates are conservative&#44; as stated by the authors&#44; not including variables for which information is scarce or nonexistent&#46; These include the following additional costs&#58; those arising from the large number of patients who are likely to be followed simultaneously in two places &#40;e&#46;g&#46; hospital consultations and primary care&#41;&#59; the proportion of patients with reduced ejection fraction but without symptoms &#40;NYHA functional class I&#41; who may be under pharmacological therapy and hence generate costs&#59; cardiac rehabilitation programs &#40;for which there are no published estimated costs&#41;&#59; and indirect costs associated with patients aged 65 years and over&#44; as the authors took the conservative option of considering that only patients under 65 are productive&#46;</p><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">However&#44; this conservative methodological approach not only shows the criteria used in estimating calculations in a positive light&#44; it also tells us how much HF is actually costing this country&#46; Life expectancy at birth in Portugal rose by over four years between 2000 and 2015&#44; to 81&#46;3 years&#44; and most of the gains in life expectancy since 2000 have been after the age of 65&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> Along with the continuing need to prevent HF by controlling cardiovascular risk factors throughout life&#44; efforts should be made to improve early diagnosis of HF and also to reduce the need for hospitalization&#44; which is largely responsible for the cost of the condition&#46; Innovative strategies like remote invasive monitoring have been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent HF hospitalization<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> and have a favorable cost-effectiveness profile&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22&#44;23</span></a> Additionally&#44; the TIM-HF 2 study on non-invasive monitoring suggested that a structured remote patient management intervention&#44; when used in a well-defined HF population&#44; could reduce the percentage of days lost due to unplanned cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause mortality&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">24</span></a> According to the European Society of Cardiology&#39;s 2019 clinical practice update on heart failure&#44; a similar approach to that used in TIM-HF 2 may be considered to reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular and HF hospitalizations and the risk of cardiovascular death&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0250"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">25</span></a> These and other strategies may be tested&#44; but their cost&#47;benefit ratio needs to be appropriately assessed&#46;</p><p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">COI studies are an essential tool for providing health professionals and health policy makers with information on cost drivers&#44; facilitating targeted decision-making regarding allocation of costs and resources&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> The study by Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> provides key information in this regard and can be used as the basis for other economic assessments&#46;</p><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0005">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0090" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The author has no conflicts of interest to declare&#46;</p></span></span>"
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Heart failure: The value of evidence-supported decision-making
Insuficiência cardíaca: o valor da tomada de decisão apoiada pela evidência
Dulce Britoa,b
a Department of Cardiology, Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte, Lisboa, Portugal
b CCUL, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Heart failure &#40;HF&#41; was identified as an emerging epidemic more than two decades ago&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> and is currently estimated to affect at least 26 million people worldwide&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span></a> HF is a complex syndrome that is difficult to define&#44; characterized by the heart&#39;s inability to meet the body&#39;s metabolic demands resulting from structural and&#47;or functional impairment of ventricular filling or ejection&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0140"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3&#44;4</span></a> Diagnosis is largely clinical&#44; based on symptoms and signs&#44; for which imaging techniques &#40;particularly echocardiography&#41; and measurement of neurohormonal peptides are crucial&#46; Although in most cases the focus is on symptomatic HF&#44; a proportion of high-risk patients may have no symptoms despite reduced left ventricular ejection fraction&#44; and they may also benefit from medical therapies that favorably impact prognosis&#46;</p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Worldwide&#44; the overall prevalence of HF is about 1-2&#37;&#44; but this figure increases considerably with advancing age&#46; Progress in primary prevention and improvements in medical care have resulted in improved survival&#44; which in turn is expected to lead to a steady rise in the prevalence of HF&#46; In the US&#44; an estimated 6&#46;2 million individuals aged &#8805;20 years have HF &#40;data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey&#44; 2013 to 2016&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> which represents an increase of 8&#46;77&#37; in comparison to the previous four years&#44; and projections show that the prevalence of HF will increase by 46&#37; from 2012 to 2030&#44; resulting in &#62;8 million people aged &#8805;18 years with the condition&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In a recent paper&#44; Conrad et al&#46; provided contemporary insight into the magnitude of the HF burden in a representative sample &#40;four million individuals&#41; of the general population of the UK&#44; between 2002 and 2014&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a> They showed that incidence &#40;standardized by age and gender&#41; decreased by 7&#37; over this period&#44; which appeared to be mainly driven by a lower incidence of HF in people between 60 and 84 years of age&#46; However&#44; the incidence in people aged 85 and older increased substantially over the observation period&#46; Moreover&#44; the authors found that the absolute prevalence had increased by 23&#37;&#44; and attributed this increase to population growth and aging&#44; in addition to more people surviving a myocardial infarction&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a></p><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Temporal trends in incidence are variable across studies and difficult to rely on due to methodological differences regarding populations&#44; settings&#44; and ascertainment and adjustment approaches&#44; but overall indicate that the incidence of HF is stable or even decreasing over time&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a> However&#44; the lifetime risk for HF in the community is very high &#40;ranging from 30&#37; to 40&#37;&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0165"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">8&#8211;10</span></a> with traditional factors accounting for a considerable proportion of HF risk and contributing to the rise in HF prevalence&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> Despite the progress in therapies &#40;drugs and devices&#41; observed during recent decades&#44; HF remains a morbid&#44; fatal and costly condition&#44; with a global burden that will increase dramatically with an aging population&#46; In fact HF is the single leading cause of hospitalization in persons aged 65 years and above&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0155"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a> Rates of hospitalizations for HF are increasing over time&#44; apparently driven by rises in HF with preserved ejection fraction &#40;HFpEF&#41;&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a> Diastolic dysfunction is a common condition&#44; especially in the elderly&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;11</span></a> and HFpEF may soon be dominant&#44; if it is not already&#44; in driving overall HF prevalence&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a></p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">HF constitutes an enormous economic burden for health care systems in industrialized countries&#46; Europe and the US spend 1-2&#37; of their annual health care budget on HF&#46; Cook et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> estimated the overall cost of heart failure in 2012&#44; in both direct and indirect terms&#44; across the globe&#46; They included 197 countries in the analysis&#44; covering 98&#46;7&#37; of the world&#39;s population&#46; The overall economic cost of HF in 2012 was estimated at &#36;108 billion per annum&#46; Direct costs accounted for &#8764;60&#37; &#40;&#36;65 billion&#41; and indirect costs accounted for &#8764;40&#37; &#40;&#36;43 billion&#41; of the overall spend&#46; The US is the biggest contributor to global HF costs&#44; accounting for 28&#46;4&#37; of the total &#40;&#36;30&#46;7 billion&#41;&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;12</span></a> Europe accounts for 6&#46;83&#37; of total global HF costs&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> High-income countries spend a greater proportion on direct costs&#44; while in middle- and low-income countries a higher proportion is spent on indirect costs&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> US projections suggest that by 2030&#44; the total cost of HF will increase by 127&#37;&#44; to &#36;69&#46;8 billion&#44; amounting to &#8776;&#36;244 for every American adult&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a></p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this issue of the <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Journal</span>&#44; Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> present a cost-of-illness &#40;COI&#41; study on HF in mainland Portugal&#44; following a prevalence-based approach and the societal perspective to estimate direct and indirect costs related to HF&#46;</p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">On the basis of the estimated prevalence and costs for 2014 &#40;the index year&#41;&#44; the authors estimated changes for the following two decades &#40;up to 2036&#41;&#44; considering only the predicted aging of the population&#46; Only the resident population &#8805;25 years of age with symptomatic HF &#40;New York Heart Association &#91;NYHA&#93; functional class II-IV&#41; was included&#46; The prevalence of HF in 2014 was estimated on the basis of the EPICA study &#40;1998-2000&#41;&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> adjusted for the expected changes in demographics since that study&#46;</p><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The different settings experienced by HF patients were analyzed&#46; Direct costs included hospitalizations&#44; hospital outpatient services&#44; emergency department &#40;ED&#41; visits &#40;with and without hospitalization&#41;&#44; day hospital care&#44; medications&#44; transportation&#44; and use of the national network of long-term care &#40;nursing home hospitalization or equivalent&#41;&#46; Data from 2014 on hospitalizations and hospital outpatient services were estimated based mostly on data from the national Diagnostic-Related Group database and identified according to the International Classification of Diseases&#44; Ninth Revision&#44; Clinical Modification &#40;ICD-9&#41;&#46; For the purposes of the study&#44; hospitalization was attributed to HF when this was listed as a primary diagnosis&#44; when it was coded as secondary to a primary diagnosis of circulatory system disease&#44; or when there were invasive cardiac procedures &#40;surgery or device implantation&#41; irrespective of other associated diagnoses&#46; All procedures and interventions related to HF were included in the costs of HF during the hospitalization episode&#46; Estimates of other relevant costs regarding hospital outpatient services were also derived from diverse sources of information&#44; including the opinion of a panel of HF experts representing various different geographical areas&#46; Estimation of costs related to primary care use was preceded by a cross-sectional study analyzing data from the information system of the Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Health Administration&#46; From a population of 1&#46;8 million&#44; 25&#160;316 individuals were identified aged &#8805;25 years&#44; with at least one medical visit during the index year &#40;2014&#41;&#44; and a code of HF &#40;K7 in the International Classification of Primary Care&#44; second edition&#41;&#46; Costs &#40;including those related to medical therapy&#41; were obtained from the Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Health Administration database&#46;</p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The indirect costs that were considered corresponded to lost productivity due to lower employment rates or absenteeism&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> The authors assumed that only patients under 65 years generate indirect costs&#44; and that patients in NYHA functional class II generate only indirect costs for absenteeism&#46;</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">For the estimation of future costs&#44; the authors considered that all variables and parameters that generate costs would remain constant&#44; except for the demographic composition of the population&#44; i&#46;e&#46; they considered that the mean cost per patient and the prevalence rates of HF by gender and age would not vary over the period considered&#46;</p><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The estimated overall prevalence of HF for 2014 was 5&#46;2&#37; &#40;mainland Portugal&#44; population aged 25 years of age or over&#41;&#46; The prevalence of HF generating costs &#40;NYHA functional classes II-IV&#41; was 3&#46;4&#37;&#46; The overall economic cost of HF in 2014 was estimated at &#8364;405 million&#44; representing around 0&#46;2&#37; of gross domestic product and 2&#46;6&#37; of total public health expenditure&#46; Direct costs accounted for 74&#37; &#40;&#8364;299 million&#41;&#44; of which 39&#37; was attributed to hospitalizations&#44; 24&#37; to medications&#44; 17&#37; to exams and tests and 16&#37; to consultations&#46; Indirect costs accounted for 26&#37; &#40;&#8364;106 million&#41; of the overall spend&#44; 84&#37; of which was for reduced employment and 16&#37; for absenteeism&#46;</p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">According to the authors&#8217; estimated projections for 2036 in mainland Portugal&#44; the number of patients with HF &#40;NYHA functional class II-IV&#41; will increase by 27&#37; relative to 2014&#44; corresponding to an overall cost of &#8364;503 million in 2036 &#40;an increase of 24&#37;&#41;&#46; The increase in the number of older people with HF&#44; along with a constant rise in direct costs&#44; explains the increase in total cost&#59; a decrease in indirect costs is expected and attributed to demographic changes&#44; as there will be fewer people younger than 65 years of age &#40;lower prevalence of HF and decreased indirect costs&#41;&#46; The decrease in indirect costs also explains the discrepancy between the rate of increase in total costs &#40;27&#37;&#41; and the rate of increase in the number of patients with HF &#40;24&#37;&#41;&#46; The annual cost per patient with HF &#40;NYHA class II-IV&#41; is predicted decrease from &#8764;&#8364;1623 in 2014 to &#8764;&#8364;1582 in 2036&#44; but the cost per head of population will increase by &#8764;34&#37; between 2014 and 2036&#44; amounting to &#8776;&#8364;55 for every adult&#46;</p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The overall picture in mainland Portugal is in line with the international literature on this subject&#46; In a recent systematic review &#40;2004-2016&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> of 16 published COI studies dealing with the cost impact of HF&#44; considerable variation was observed in cost components and estimates&#44; as the methodologies used varied widely and health care systems are very different across countries&#46; Only three studies estimated indirect costs&#44; and four European studies published between 2013 and 2017<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16&#8211;19</span></a> focused mainly on costs related to HF hospitalizations&#44; while none estimated costs for lost productivity&#46; However&#44; most of the 16 included studies<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> showed that hospitalizations are the most expensive element&#46;</p><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Also&#44; according to Gouveia et al&#46;&#8217;s estimates&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> hospitalizations accounted for 39&#37; of direct costs while only 16&#37; were attributed to consultations&#44; a situation that urgently needs to be changed&#46; Medications accounted for 24&#37; of direct costs&#44; which is to be expected considering the heavy pharmacological burden of HF patients&#46; The benefit provided by prognosis-modifying therapies may outweigh the economic burden of hospitalizations&#44; although given the greater longevity achieved along with the corresponding increase in HF prevalence&#44; it is difficult to expect a reduction in the total cost of the illness&#46;</p><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The work by Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> has several merits besides being the first study to shed light on the costs of HF in Portugal and the corresponding estimated projection for the next two decades&#46; First&#44; the study covers the population with HF in the different possible contexts of management&#58; the hospital setting &#40;hospitalization&#44; consultations&#44; day hospital care&#44; emergency department visits without hospitalization&#41;&#59; the community &#40;outpatient setting&#41;&#44; i&#46;e&#46; management in primary health care&#59; and care at home &#40;or in an institution&#41; integrated in the National Network of Long-Term Care&#46; Second&#44; the work reflects the situation in Portugal using a methodology that appears flawless&#44; erring only on the side of underestimation&#46; In other words&#44; the cost estimates are conservative&#44; as stated by the authors&#44; not including variables for which information is scarce or nonexistent&#46; These include the following additional costs&#58; those arising from the large number of patients who are likely to be followed simultaneously in two places &#40;e&#46;g&#46; hospital consultations and primary care&#41;&#59; the proportion of patients with reduced ejection fraction but without symptoms &#40;NYHA functional class I&#41; who may be under pharmacological therapy and hence generate costs&#59; cardiac rehabilitation programs &#40;for which there are no published estimated costs&#41;&#59; and indirect costs associated with patients aged 65 years and over&#44; as the authors took the conservative option of considering that only patients under 65 are productive&#46;</p><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">However&#44; this conservative methodological approach not only shows the criteria used in estimating calculations in a positive light&#44; it also tells us how much HF is actually costing this country&#46; Life expectancy at birth in Portugal rose by over four years between 2000 and 2015&#44; to 81&#46;3 years&#44; and most of the gains in life expectancy since 2000 have been after the age of 65&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> Along with the continuing need to prevent HF by controlling cardiovascular risk factors throughout life&#44; efforts should be made to improve early diagnosis of HF and also to reduce the need for hospitalization&#44; which is largely responsible for the cost of the condition&#46; Innovative strategies like remote invasive monitoring have been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent HF hospitalization<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> and have a favorable cost-effectiveness profile&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22&#44;23</span></a> Additionally&#44; the TIM-HF 2 study on non-invasive monitoring suggested that a structured remote patient management intervention&#44; when used in a well-defined HF population&#44; could reduce the percentage of days lost due to unplanned cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause mortality&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">24</span></a> According to the European Society of Cardiology&#39;s 2019 clinical practice update on heart failure&#44; a similar approach to that used in TIM-HF 2 may be considered to reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular and HF hospitalizations and the risk of cardiovascular death&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0250"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">25</span></a> These and other strategies may be tested&#44; but their cost&#47;benefit ratio needs to be appropriately assessed&#46;</p><p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">COI studies are an essential tool for providing health professionals and health policy makers with information on cost drivers&#44; facilitating targeted decision-making regarding allocation of costs and resources&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> The study by Gouveia et al&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> provides key information in this regard and can be used as the basis for other economic assessments&#46;</p><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0005">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0090" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The author has no conflicts of interest to declare&#46;</p></span></span>"
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Informação do artigo
ISSN: 08702551
Idioma original: Inglês
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2020 Dezembro 40 28 68
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